Is John McCain in trouble?

A few days ago John McCain ordered the second big shake-up of his presidential campaign, elevating adviser Steve Schmidt in an attempt to focus his message and improve his organization.

The move reportedly came after growing concerns, inside the campaign and among Republican leaders, about the state of McCain's operation. The feeling, apparently, was that McCain has not developed an effective message and squandered opportunities during the Democrats' bitter primary battle. Others have worried about the quality of some of McCain's campaign events, and about an unwieldy organization that involved a group of relatively autonomous regional directors.

According to The New York Times, Schmidt actually warned McCain two weeks ago that unless he retooled his operation, he was in danger of losing the election.

All of this raises the question: Just how much trouble is McCain in?

The presumptive Republican candidate, after all, already faces headwinds that would be daunting for even the most polished campaign. Polls show the public is deeply dissatisfied with President Bush and the GOP. Democratic enthusiasm and voter registration are high. Voters are dissatisfied with the economy and the Iraq war, and appear to be ready for a change. McCain, with his reputation for independence, is possibly the Republican with the best shot at overcoming these obstacles, but even his campaign acknowledges the challenges.

On top of that, Democrat Barack Obama has shown the capacity to raise enormous sums of money, and his campaign has proven adept at political basics like field organizing and voter turnout.

The first point to make, however, is that it's still early in the campaign; in essence, it's just begun. Any prediction about how things will look in November are premature. Political analysts like to point out that Michael Dukakis at one point held a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush in the 1988 election, and proceeded to lose handily. McCain and Obama have not chosen their running mates, addressed their conventions, held debates or aired most of their television ads. Voters generally do not make their decisions until much later in the campaign, although this one has generated unusual early interest. And events beyond the control of either campaign could still affect the outcome, from an improvement in the economy to a downturn in Iraq.

Moreover, McCain has always relied on a freewheeling style of campaigning, rather than an ironclad discipline, and it's worked well for him. In 2000, McCain put a scare into the powerful Bush campaign with a seat-of-the pants, insurgent effort that involved bull sessions with reporters, given-and-take with voters and a certain exuberance. In the current campaign, McCain was considered politically dead last summer; he overhauled his campaign, returned to a stripped-down, spontaneous style more comfortable for him, and proceeded to knock off Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and other formidable rivals.

The question McCain faces is whether this looser style of campaigning is enough to carry him to victory against a well-financed, highly organized general election opponent. With four months until election day, McCain trails in most national polls, although by less than one might expect given the public's view of Republicans. He probably has to run an exceedingly skilled campaign, or catch fire in some way, to pull off a victory in November. His margin for error is small.

For now, Schmidt has impressive credentials, and it's likely he can impose more discipline and a tighter message than the McCain operation has managed so far. But ultimately, McCain has to be the freewheeling maverick; that's how he got to where he is, and when he's tried to rein that side of his character he has not fared well.

Before long, we'll know if it's enough