Lisbon Treaty Referendum - "NO" result is almost certain

Après the vote

RTÉ.ie/lisbon has complete coverage of the Lisbon Treaty

The different scenarios: A look at what would happen if Ireland rejects, or accepts, the Treaty.

Scenario one: If Ireland votes No...

The Treaties currently in operation in the EU, last amended by the Nice Treaty, will remain standing as they are now.

The European reaction to Ireland's result is open to conjecture and has been predicted to range from EU-wide chaos to virtually no reaction at all. Commission President José Manuel Barroso has re-iterated that there is no 'Plan B' if Ireland rejects the ratification of Lisbon.

It is possible that Ireland would hold another referendum later in the year, perhaps after further negotiations, to keep the door open for Ireland to get on board with the Treaty. There is also the possibility that the other 26 countries will continue with the ratification process and all Member States, bar Ireland, will move forward with the Lisbon Treaty. In this situation, Ireland would have to negotiate how it would engage with this group.

The Yes side says that if Ireland rejects it, the Treaty will collapse and Member States will come together in groups to move forward on areas where they have been frustrated by the Irish vote.

The No side says that a 'no' vote opens up an opportunity for re-negotiation for a more favourable Treaty for Ireland.

 

Scenario two: If Ireland votes Yes...

If each of the other Member States successfully ratifies the Treaty, The Treaty amending the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty Establishing the European Community, (i.e. The Lisbon Treaty), will come into effect on 1 January 2009.

Every country keeps its veto on military matters.

Every country keeps its veto on taxation issues. Other Member States cannot run an enhanced co-operation if it conflicts with the laws of the Union or distorts competition.

Guidelines will be laid down for leaving the EU if a Member State so chooses. There is also an article outlining how the EU will react towards a Member State which breaches the EU's objectives as laid down in the Treaties. The Council may decide to suspend that Member States' voting rights in the Council.

The clause known as the 'Citizens' Initiative' will be introduced whereby not less than 1m citizens from a significant number of Member States can submit a legislative proposal to the Commission for its consideration, (but must be related to the Treaties and the Commission is not compelled to act on it after the period of consideration).

The new office of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy will replace both the EC vice-president and the High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy positions simultaneously. Javier Solana, currently the High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, is rumoured to be in line for the position, if he is not too exhausted by that time.

The European Parliament will become an EU institution and, operating under 'co-decision' together with the Council, will legislate on a wide area of EU competence. This adoption procedure means that the Council of the EU (representing the people) and the European Parliament (representing the States) can both reject a proposal of the Commission. This extension of the co-decision procedure applies to judicial and police co-operation.

The European Parliament and the Council will now determine together all annual expenditures, and the Parliament must approve the multi-annual agreement that frames the level and structure of the EU budget for a seven-year period.

The European Parliament will also have to approve the international agreements signed by the EU in a large number of areas.

The European Central Bank will become one of the official institutions of the EU, bound by the same code as the other institutions. The Lisbon Treaty does not include an article that ensures the bank's independence.

The Charter on Fundamental Human Rights is granted full legal status through the Lisbon Treaty.

The European Council will become an official EU institution under the Lisbon Treaty, with a President holding office for a term of 2.5 years. Currently, this position is rotated between the Member States every six months. Persons rumoured to have an interest in the position include Tony Blair and serving Commission President, José Manuel Barroso.

The 'pillar structure' of the EU would be abolished under Lisbon, creating one EU legal personality. The 'pillar structure' refers to the way the EU current operates. The first pillar covers the European Community, which currently has legal personality. The second pillar covers Common Foreign and Security Policy. The third pillar concerns Police and Judicial Co-operation in Criminal Matters. These three currently comprise the EU and will be consolidated into one legal form if the Lisbon Treaty is ratified.

The 'solidarity clause' obliges Member States to assist one another if attacked or if struck by a natural disaster but does not specify what kind of assistance should be offered.

The Nice Treaty reduces the number of Commissioners regardless of what happens in the Lisbon Treaty referendum but there is a get-out clause to delay or cancel the reduction if the Member States unanimously agree to bin the idea.

Ireland is already part of the Euratom Treaty since 1973 and has to continue to contribute financially to research programmes under Euratom.

The latest opinion poll on the Lisbon Referendum is showing the 'No' side surging ahead in a dramatic reversal of opinion.

===UPDATE===

Thousand of column inches and kilobytes throughout the EU have been dedicated to Ireland's unique position as the only member country to vote on the Lisbon Treaty.

Finnish paper Helsingin Sanomat writes that Ireland is currently the most influential country in Europe as the other 26 Member States await the results of the referendum on 12 June

Denmark's Politiken writes of the impact the Irish referendum will have on the future of the EU.

Dziennik in Poland has quoted Commission President José Manuel Barroso saying there is no plan B if Ireland rejects the Treaty.

The Lithuanian press criticised their Government's refusal to put the Treaty to a citizens' vote, and the British papers have been covering the campaigns for Gordon Brown to approve a referendum before UK ratification of the Treaty.

The campaign for a referendum in the UK has been covered across a range of publications and last weekend's papers reported that the English High Court is hearing a legal challenge against Gordon Brown on the referendum issue - on the same day as the Irish referendum.

Sweden is not due to ratify the Lisbon Treaty until after the Irish electorate has voted and, mindful that the Irish result could determine the future of the Treaty, its press has carried opinion pieces urging Ireland's approval of the Treaty. A no vote, Dagens Nyheter newspaper warns, could result in EU chaos.

The uncertainty of the outcome has been of interest to many European newspapers and notably the continually wavering results of the Irish opinion polls. The Financial Times featured an article reporting that EU bureaucracy and initiative has been toned down lately in order to prevent any negative influence on the Irish referendum. The article also noted how embarrassing a no vote could prove for the EU.

Particular attention has been paid to the level of undecided Irish voters registered in the surveys, but Ireland is not the only country confused about the Treaty. Prague Post and Právo, two Czech Republic publications, both published surveys which reported that up to 40% of the Czech public has no idea what the Lisbon Treaty is.

The IFA's decision to support the Government's yes vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum got a lot of attention across Europe with German paper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung publishing an article on the IFA's success at blackmailing the Taoiseach before lending their support to his campaign. Weekendavisen from Denmark points out that the farmers' votes could well prove the deciding factor in the success or failure of the Lisbon Treaty.

While we may feel inundated by campaign posters, Lisbon debates and Treaty chatter, the Spanish paper La Vanguardia claims the Irish media hasn't shown much interest in the Lisbon Treaty to date.

===ORIGINAL NEWS ITEM===

The latest opinion poll on the Lisbon Referendum is showing the 'No' side surging ahead in a dramatic reversal of opinion.

The TNS/mrbi poll in tomorrow's Irish Times shows opponents of the Treaty with a 5% lead over those in favour.

Up to now, opinion polls on the Referendum campaign have consistently shown the 'Yes' side ahead, although opponents have been closing the gap.

But now the 'No' side has done more than that, surging into a commanding lead with just a week to polling day.

The poll shows the 'Yes' side at 30%, down five points since their last poll three weeks ago, while the 'No' side is at 35%, up a staggering 17%, with 'Don't Knows' down 12 at 35%.

If that result is repeated next week, the political establishment is heading for a crushing defeat and the Lisbon Treaty is dead.

Meanwhile, President McAleese has said its important that people use their vote in the forthcoming referendum.

Ms McAleese said everybody should read everything available from the referendum commission and then go out and vote.

The President was speaking in Warrington in Cheshire, where she was visiting the Foundation for Peace, set up in memory of the two children who were killed in the 1993 IRA bombing in the town.