Political Islam on rise in Indonesia a decade after Suharto: analysts

"Political Islam has become one of the most important factors in shaping the future of Indonesia after the fall of Suharto," Airlangga University political analyst Daniel Sparingga told AFP.

From the 2002 Bali bombing blamed on Islamic militants to the current debate on the banning of a minority Islamic sect over its so-called deviant views, analysts say the battle between the forces of moderation and intolerance is far from won.

They cite the spread of strict Wahabbist teachings in Islamic schools, the debate among mainstream Islamic parties about sharia law and women's rights, and vigilante campaigns against "immodesty" as causes for concern.

But others say the real gains for Islam in Indonesian politics since Suharto have been at the moderate centre, not the fanatical fringe.

These analysts point to the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which has emerged as a major political force in the past four years through a moderate message which appeals to mainstream Indonesian Muslims.

The party is hoping to win 110 seats in the 550-seat parliament in next year's general elections, compared to just seven in 1999, the year after Suharto's fall, and 45 in 2004.

In contrast, the United Development Party, the country's largest Muslim political grouping which was established under Suharto in 1973, did not manage to improve on its 58 seats in the 2004 polls.

Analysts said the PKS owes its success to a softening of its Islamic edges and to its clean image in a country rated as one of the world's most corrupt.

But many suspect the party, which began as a zealous student movement inspired by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, has not fully abandoned its youthful radicalism.

"After they failed to achieve their target in 1999, they made a big and important transformation in strategy," said Eep Saefullah, a political analyst from the University of Indonesia.

"But it's obviously for the 2009 elections and it's limited to the party's surface."

Despite its softer rhetoric, the PKS has never opposed sharia law in Indonesia or ...